BIA Advisory Services, Chantilly, VA,  has decreased its 2022 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast estimate to $167.4 billion, from its original estimate of $173.3 billion issued in December 2021.

According to a release: “Headwinds from overseas conflicts, continuing supply chain issues and deep cuts in ad spending from large verticals like automotive precipitated the reduction. Positives for the ad market still include an anticipated strong political ad year, the expansion of online gambling local advertising and consumer spending on leisure and recreational activities.” The updated local advertising forecast for 16 media and 96 sub-verticals is now available in the BIA ADVantage™ platform and local radio and television revenue has been updated in the MEDIA Access Pro™ database.

“The year didn’t start as strong as we had anticipated, making for a difficult first two quarters as some expected advertising spend started to retract,” said Mark Fratrik, SVP and Chief Economist, BIA Advisory Services. “On the one hand, personal income continues to rise, but the cost of consumer goods, rising gas prices and inflation are having a major impact and we believe that will influence how advertisers will choose to use their ad dollars in the coming months. All of that must be weighed against what we see as positives for local advertising this year.”

The latest forecast estimate still gives traditional media ad revenue a slight advantage over digital at 52.5 percent of the ad spend ($87.9B), while digital media will get 47.5 percent of the ad spend at $79.5B. Overall, BIA is decreasing digital estimates slightly from the original 2022 forecast due to mobile facing headwinds amid new privacy measures on iPhones. Additionally, there has been slower than anticipated growth. Even as both digital channels continue to grow, it’s at a reduced pace than originally expected.